record warmth

This November will likely finish somewhere in the top ten warmest on record(using Burlington NWS office as the reference point).

As of this Monday morning, it was in 9th place with an average of 41.9 degrees. This is only two tenths of a degree from seventh place and it is a mild day, so we will see where it officially ends up tomorrow.

greetings

Just wanted to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving; it certainly looks like a mild one.

a change is due

There might be some skiing this weekend, as the mountains could pick up several inches of snow and temperatures drop for snowmaking.

A moderately strong surface low is expected to track northeast up the New England coast into the Canadian Maritimes Friday night and Saturday with plenty of Atlantic moisture wrapping around into the North Country. Cold air should continue to work into the area over the weekend. This adds up to high confidence that we will see some snow. The lower elevations may not pick up much, but the higher elevations could see some moderate accumulations.

not unusual

Our second significant rain event in under a week; still a bit early for snow. It’d be a bummer for down-hillers, though, if it were December.

something to think about

Saturday’s rain was significant; around an inch west of the Greens, closer to two east. Two rainfall records for the date were set. Burlington’s 1.14 inches broke their old record of .84 (1959) and Montpelier’s 1.74 surpassed the .93 inches they got in 1975.

Also of note- It’s mid November, just imagine if it had been snow.

wet weekend

This weekend’s mostly rain will be the first real precipitation this month. Most locations in northern Vermont have seen lees than a tenth inch so far this November; St J has recorded only .02.
Fortunately, with the growing season all but done and leaves off the trees, our local flora doesn’t need the moisture.

one record better than none

Montpelier’s 69 was the one record high on Monday. Burlington’s 65 was just two degrees shy of their record , and St J’s 64 fell short by four; still a delightfully warm day.

By way of comparison, Vermont State’s warmest November reading is 81 set on the 3rd in Bellow Falls in 1950.

near record highs expected today

Below is a list of record high temperatures for today which have a chance to be tied or possibly broken.

Burlington..........67 degrees (1945)
Montpelier..........63 degrees (1975)
St Johnsbury........68 degrees (1996)
Mnt Mansfield.......54 degrees (1996)

Which will you be this weekend?

With Indian Summer-like weather coming up this weekend into early next week, something to consider:

Paraphrased from Wikipedia-

The Ant and the Grasshopper is a fable attributed to Aesop (620-560 BC), providing a moral lesson about hard work and preparation. In the numbering system established for Aesopic fables by B. E. Perry, it is number 373 [that’s a lot of fables, even if it’s the last].

The fable concerns a grasshopper who has spent the good weather times relaxed and enjoying while the ant worked to get ready for winter. When winter arrives, the grasshopper finds itself unprepared, and upon asking the ant for help, is only rebuked for its idleness.

This fable is also referred to in the Old Testament’s Book of Proverbs 6:6-9, which admonishes, "Go to the ant, you sluggard! Consider her ways and be wise.”

If you have all your outdoor winterization chores done, the next several fine weather days you can be Aesop’s fabled grasshopper; if not… be the ant!

cooling off

In nearly all of northern Vermont, an afternoon high of 50 degrees is now above average. Daily record highs run around 70.

winter outlook

My Winter forecast is based on looking for the similarities in all the other seasonal forecasts and fine-tuning them for northern Vermont.

At this point, it looks like near, or slightly above average temperatures, with snow cover that, off and on throughout the season, builds quickly, then shrinks.

A reminder, that even with slightly above average temperatures overall, there can still be extended periods of bitter cold (we are talking Winter in Vermont). In addition, the snow cover forecast is for the lower elevations, and indicates that when we have it, we should enjoy it.